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  1. The AUD/USD is expected to fall further towards 0.7200 as China and the Fed join the Ukraine-Russia crisis As market sentiment deteriorates ahead of Monday’s European session, the AUD/USD reverts to an intraday low around 0.7250, down 0.48 percent on the day. The risk barometer validates the market’s recent pessimism, as well as its apprehension ahead of this week’s key Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC). The improved progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks was not enough to entice AUD/USD buyers, as the latest Russian shelling and demands for Kyiv to back down, as well as Ukraine’s push for more sanctions against Moscow, did. On the same vein, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated on CBS’s “Face the Nation” programme that Russia may default on its debts as a result of unprecedented sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, but this would not trigger a default. In other news, China has reported the highest daily covid infections since May 2020 and has imposed strict lockdowns in two states, bringing back the virus woes and weighing on the AUD/USD. The strength of US Treasury yields is also a challenge to the quote, as the 5-year bond coupon renews at an all-time high above 2.0 percent amid record inflation expectations, according to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data. Among these bets, the S&P 500 Futures and the ASX 200 both pared early Asian session gains. Furthermore, Chinese stocks are falling, despite market expectations for a rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). As a result, risk aversion may continue to weigh on AUD/USD prices until commodities regain upside momentum, which is less likely given China’s challenges. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  2. EUR/USD seeks to break a four-week downtrend near 1.1000, with a focus on US data and Ukraine The EUR/USD is licking its wounds after the ECB while making its way to 1.1000, up 0.15 percent intraday during the mid-Asian session on Friday. The pair’s recent movements could be attributed to the market’s uncertainty about the key risk catalysts, as well as a USD pullback. Nonetheless, the major currency pair is on track to end its four-week losing streak. The US Senate’s passage of a $13.6 billion aid package to Ukraine and a $1.5 trillion bill to avoid a government shutdown could magnify Western aid to Kyiv, as seen in today’s United Nations (UN) Security Council, which weighs on EUR/USD prices. Concerns about a new surge in China’s covid cases, as well as fears about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are all on the same page. The quote was under downward pressure as a result of this. The previous day’s US inflation data and subsequent hopes for faster Fed rate hikes may also have contributed to the pair’s weakness. Alternatively, uncertainty over Russia’s military position in Ukraine, as well as a lack of major data/events in Asia, appears to limit EUR/USD downside. Having said that, reports of a Russian military attack on a Kharkiv institute containing an experimental nuclear reactor initially shook the market before the news of no negatives quelled fears. Similarly, reports that Moscow’s forces are gradually dispersing and may be retreating favoured the optimists prior to the US Satellite company Maxar’s update indicating more troops being redeployed. Among these bets, the S&P 500 Futures fell 0.5 percent on the day, while US 10-year Treasury yields fell 4.4 basis points (bps) to 1.965 percent by press time. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains undecided around 98.50 but remains determined to reverse the previous four-week uptrend. It’s worth noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) cited inflationary challenges while releasing details on faster Quantitative Tapering (QT) the day before. Euro traders, on the other hand, focused on the eurozone’s currency’s downwardly revised growth forecasts and upwardly revised inflation expectations. “The ECB’s statement, which left the door open to raising interest rates before the end of 2022 because soaring inflation outweighs concerns about the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “The euro rose briefly before market sentiment turned negative,” according to Reuters. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  3. With peace talks on the horizon, the XAU/USD remains below $2,000 per ounce On Wednesday, gold suffered greatly as risk sentiment improved. After reaching a 19-month high at the start of the week, the precious metal fell back below $2,000 per ounce. Spot gold fell 3.3 percent to $1,976 per ounce, capping a rally that had taken it close to the all-time high set in August 2020. Gold futures in the United States fell 2.7 percent to $1,988.20. Profit-taking, as well as a sharp drop in oil prices, fueled the reversal, allowing buyers to scoop up bargains in the stock markets on stocks that had previously been hammered by concerns about Russian sanctions. On Wednesday, a Russian airstrike severely damaged a children’s hospital in the besieged Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. However, risk sentiment improved as oil prices fell sharply after the United Arab Emirates said it would support increasing output as an OPEC member. Brent oil dropped from $131.50bbls to $105.91bbls. The price had reached a high of $138.03bbls at the start of the week in a market that was in disarray due to supply disruptions caused by sanctions imposed on Russia as a result of the conflict. The price of oil is critical for gold. Oil’s rally has been a major source of concern as markets assess whether the global economy will face a stagflationary or inflationary shock. “The conflict in Ukraine has serious and obvious implications for commodity prices. Will the implications for inflation, however, be more long-lasting than those for growth? Certainly, global central banks are concerned about one particular channel of self-reinforcing inflation — inflation expectations could be de-anchored if the shock permeates the world’s psyche,” analysts at TD Securities explained. “While the direct implications of the conflict on growth are more limited in the US, indirect implications may be more relevant as ongoing disruptions to supply chains may have a spillover effect, while inflation is also likely to act as a tax on consumers,” the analysts added. “If the shock depresses consumer sentiment at the same time, the Fed will have to walk a tightrope between its unemployment and inflation targets.” As a result, the market has concluded that the Fed will remain nimble in order to avoid tipping the US economy into a recession for the time being, but the subsequent rate path and the path for quantitative tightening are less clear.” “In this context, gold bugs are more likely to profit from a subsequent increase in central bank demand for gold, having observed the events unfold as potential vulnerabilities for national accounts.” Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  4. Gold is surging and breaking records. $2,000/oz At the start of the week, the price of gold in fast markets has just surpassed $2,000 per ounce. The catalyst is oil, as well as concerns about global stagflation. Oil prices have increased by 10% on Monday as a result of the threat of a ban on Russian products in the United States and Europe. Delays are also occurring in Iranian negotiations. Brent was quoted at $130.84, up $12.73, while US crude was up $9.92 to $125.60. At the time of writing, it is reported that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is considering legislation that would prohibit Russia from importing oil. This was a topic that roiled markets right away. Pelosi stated last Thursday that she supports a ban on Russian oil imports into the United States. Biden has been hesitant to restrict Russian oil shipments to the US or impose energy sanctions, despite the fact that prices are already hitting US citizens’ pockets. However, the sanction has already received widespread support from Republicans and an increasing number of Democrats. Commodity prices in general have had their best start to a year since 1915. Among the many movers last week, nickel increased by 19%, aluminium by 15%, zinc by 12%, and copper by 8%, while wheat futures increased by 60% and corn by 15%. This makes this week’s US Consumer Price Index a critical event for markets, with an annual growth rate of 7.9 percent and a core measure of 6.4 percent expected ahead of the European Central Bank meeting this week and the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  5. GBP/JPY stays depressed below 155.00 as yields ease on Ukraine fears GBP/JPY remains sidelined around 154.70 during Thursday’s Asian session, mildly offered after bouncing off a 10-week low the previous day. The cross-currency pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the market’s anxiety ahead of key data/events, as well as a lack of major catalysts. Cautious optimism from an anticipated round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine battles increasing hopes of a faster rate-hike trajectory by the Fed to test the market sentiment of late. A Russian negotiator was quoted to share the news of a probable round of diplomatic talks on Thursday. On the same line, Interfax also mentioned, “A potential ceasefire will be discussed in upcoming talks with the Ukrainian delegation.” It’s worth noting that a jump in the probabilities of a 0.50% rate hike in the March Fed meeting, per CME’s Fed Watch Tool, also challenges the market’s optimism. On the same line were the US inflation expectations that rose to a 15-week high, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (****) data. Elsewhere, global rating agencies like Moody’s and Fitch cut Russia’s ratings and contribute to the offbeat sentiment. At home, the Daily Express quotes data showing a jump in the EU nationals in the UK to shrug off Brexit criticism. Further, UK PM Boris Johnson spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and said, he will publish ‘full list of all those associated with the Putin regime’ per The Guardian. Additionally, Bank of England (BOE) policymakers, including Silvana Tenreyro and Jon Cunliffe, cited economic risks emanating from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the same line, Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy board member Junko Nagaya said in a statement on Thursday, “Japan’s economic outlook remains highly uncertain from January onward.” Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields also drop 1.2 basis points (bps) to 1.85% by the press time. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  6. AUD/USD rate stages another attempt for 2022 opening range breakout AUD/USD appears to be unfazed by the RBA’s dovish forward guidance as it clears the February high (0.7284), and it remains to be seen if the update to Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report will derail the recent advance in the exchange rate amid expectations for a slowdown in economic activity. Australia is projected to grow 3.7% after expanding 3.9% during the third quarter of 2021, and indications of a slowing economy may keep the RBA on a preset course as the central bank pledges to “not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.” As a result, the advance from the January low (0.6968) may turn out to be a correction in the broader trend with the Federal Reserve on track to normalize monetary policy ahead of its Australian counterpart, but recent price action raises the scope for another run at the January high (0.7314) as it clears the February range. In turn, AUD/USD may continue to carve a series of higher highs and lows over the coming days if it shows a limited reaction to Australia’s GDP report, and a further appreciation in the exchange rate may fuel the recent flip in retail sentiment like the behavior seen in 2021. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  7. XAU/USD is expected to fall below $1,900 as it loses its safe-haven appeal Gold prices are aiming for support below $1,900 as the market’s risk-off impulse returns. The precious metal has been trading in a range of $1,890.92-1,911.00 as investors await a new catalyst from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to be escalating. According to Maxar satellite images, the Russian military perimeter around Kyiv has grown to 40 miles, rather than the 17 miles initially reported. This could rekindle interest in the yellow metal. Furthermore, the US dollar index (DXY) has been vulnerable as market participants have diverted funds away from the DXY and into riskier assets. The greenback has established a short-term ground near 96.80, reducing the precious metal’s exposure to the greenback. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which will fly under the radar. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Wednesday will be the key event to watch out for, along with another round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ‘in the coming days.’ The price of gold has risen as demand for safe-haven assets has remained strong. After rising as much as 2.2 percent earlier in the session, spot gold rose 0.6 percent to $1,898.25 per ounce. Gold futures in the United States finished 0.7 percent higher at $1,900.70. Gold, which is frequently used as a safe haven of value during times of political and financial unrest, has risen about 6.5 percent in February, reaching an 18-month high of $1,973.96 last week. Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine has weighed on risk assets such as US and European equities, as well as bond yields. Investors are grappling with uncertainty, with bank stocks plummeting as a result of tough Western sanctions imposed on Russia as it continued its invasion of Ukraine. The DJI and S&P 500 fell, but the Nasdaq managed to claw its way back to the top. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  8. EUR/JPY Price Prediction: Bulls need to break through the 200-EMA to move higher; 130.30 is the target Despite the bearish opening gap on Monday, the EUR/JPY has been following the primary component of Dow Theory by remaining above Friday’s low of 128.73. The cross continues to form the higher high and higher low structure, but more filters are needed to complete it. On Monday, EUR/JPY opened at 129.16, close to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement (the distance between Friday’s low and high of 128.73 and 130.30). This is typically used to provide significant support for an asset following a correction. These pullbacks are frequently viewed by investors as a good time to buy. The cross is trading in a narrow range of 129.15-129.43, indicating that the volatility bands are being squeezed. Despite a ‘higher high and higher low’ structure, EUR/JPY is trading below the 50-period and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on a 15-minute scale, indicating a lacklustre move ahead. After trading in a bullish range of 60.00-40.00, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has dropped sharply near 30.00.Bulls are keeping an eye on the 200-EMA at 129.51, as a break of it will send the cross higher towards Friday’s high at 130.30 and Wednesday’s high at 130.71, respectively. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  9. Price Analysis of the AUD/JPY: Will History Repeat Itself? If this is the case, expect much lower levels in the future Bears in the AUD/JPY have been breaking new ground below 83, paving the way for further declines in the coming days. The pair is the forex space’s risk barometer, and as the Ukraine crisis worsens, financial markets are being pushed to exit risk and seek safe havens like the yen. This renewed conflict and risk in markets over Ukrainian territory began in November of last year, when the first satellite imagery revealed a new buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border. It has escalated in recent months to the point where a Russian attack on Ukrainian territory is expected to be underway, according to Ukraine and the US. AUD/JPY has been created in kind, but given the complexities of the situation, any pullbacks are likely to fade. This is not a crisis that will be resolved in a single G& or UN summit before the end of the week. It is a dispute that has raged since 2013, when President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a deal for greater integration with the European Union backed by Russia but was quickly driven out of the country by protesters. Since then, a series of events in Russia’s attempt to reclaim the eastern territories have brought the country to its knees the relationship between Russia and the West to its lowest point since the Cold War. This is a crisis that is here to stay, potentially (likely) worsening into outright conflict before any diplomatic middle ground can be found. As a result, for the foreseeable future, there is little chance of a recovery in AUD/JPY beyond recently printed highs made in recent sessions. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  10. EUR/GBP is hovering around 0.8330 ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy report hearings In the Asian session, the EUR/GBP is trading in a narrow range of 0.8330-0.8345, as investors await the Bank of England’s (BOE) monetary policy report hearings on Wednesday. The cross has remained volatile in recent trading sessions due to the obscurity of the Russia-Ukraine spat. Market participants, however, have been underpinning the pound against the shared currency, as the latter may be more impacted by the escalation of sanctions against Russia. Both economies have imposed sanctions in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. In a tweet on Tuesday, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss stated that her government will impose new sanctions on Moscow in response to their violation of international law and assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Later, Britain imposed sanctions on five Russian banks: Rossiya bank, IS bank, General bank, Promsvyazbank, and Black Seabank, while Germany blocked a new gas pipeline from Russia, despite the fact that Germany relies on Russia for domestic gas. According to The New Statesman, Russia accounts for 65 percent of Germany’s natural gas imports and nearly 40 percent of the EU’s. Meanwhile, the European calendar is jam-packed with events on Wednesday, beginning with a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) member Frank Elderson and Vice President Luis De Guindos. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  11. The USD/JPY is licking its wounds near a 13-day low due to lower yields and risk aversion USD/JPY pares intraday losses near the lowest levels since February 03, bouncing off the multi-day low to 114.70 during Tuesday’s mid-Asian session. Despite the yen pair’s recent corrective pullback, the market’s risk-off mood supports the USD/safe-haven JPY’s demand. S&P 500 futures fall more than 1.5 percent, while US 10-year Treasury yields fall six basis points (bps) to 1.87 percent by press time. Furthermore, stocks in Asia-Pacific are losing money on a daily basis as a result of widespread risk aversion. Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine are fueling the moves, as troops from Moscow move closer to borders after President Vladimir Putin summoned them to mark peacemaking efforts. The move was the market’s second setback after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine independent states and signed a decree “on friendship and cooperation.” Following that, Western warnings about Moscow’s readiness for an impending invasion of Ukraine gained credence and ruined the mood. The latest hints by the US, EU, Canada, and the UK to criticise Russian actions are also negative for risk appetite. Furthermore, Yomiuri cited Japan’s warning to halt chip exports to Moscow if it invades Ukraine, while Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison stated that Australia will stand in lockstep with allies on sanctions against Russia. It’s worth noting that Japan’s Finance Minister (FinMin) Shunichi Suzuki stated that Tokyo will work with the Group of Seven (G7) countries to deal with Ukraine. In terms of economics, Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index increased 1.2 percent in January, compared to 0.7 percent forecast and 1.1 percent expected. Holidays in the United States and Canada, on the other hand, provided a dull start to the week, despite the general risk-off mood. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  12. Bulls in the XAU/USD are retreating as markets place their hopes on a meeting between US Vice President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin The price of gold has been swinging back and forth in response to every headline involving Russia, Ukraine, and the latest diplomatic efforts to avert war. At the time of writing, gold is trading near $1,896, having previously ranged between a high of $1,908.32 and a low of $1,891.68. The headlines are pouring in, but the market consensus is that a US-Russia summit will take place, which could help to defuse the situation in Ukraine. The White House has confirmed this, but with the caveat that there cannot be an invasion of Ukraine, and the US believes one is imminent. The United States announced that Russia appears to be continuing its preparations for a full-scale attack on Ukraine very soon. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has agreed to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov next week, which has calmed investor nerves and slowed demand for safe-haven assets. The White House announced that US President Joe Biden will provide an update on the Russia-Ukraine situation on Friday at 4 p.m. ET. As the focus shifts to monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, the price of gold may soon fall back into the hands of the hawks. In this regard, ears will be to the ground for Fed speakers in the coming week. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  13. AUD/USD bulls are moving in as hopes of diplomacy succeeding continue to support risk The AUD/USD is up 0.16 percent in the Asian session, trading at 0.7197, as risk appetite returns on what appears to be more signs of diplomacy shining through the cracks of fear of an impending war between NATO and Ukraine vs. Russia. Initially, the Australian had taken a more cautious approach, fearing that Russia would invade Ukraine. According to a State Department spokesman, reports that US Secretary of State Blinken has accepted an invitation to meet Russia’s Lavrov late next week have calmed some nerves in Asia. In addition, US President Joe Biden will host a meeting on Ukraine on Friday with leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and NATO. According to Reuters, iron ore fell sharply this week as Beijing increased its efforts to restrain the steel-making mineral. “ANZ analysts noted that inventories of many resources were near record lows, just as manufacturers were looking to build up stocks in response to recent supply disruptions. This, combined with forecasts of strong global growth this year, suggested that resources could withstand higher interest rates.” Meanwhile, TD Securities analysts explained that “should geopolitical risk ease, aluminum prices are vulnerable as the disruptive lockdown in Baise ends, along with Chinese curtailments and easing European power woes.’ “Markets sensitivity to Ukraine risk is likely to rise heading into February 20th, which marks the end of war games in Belarus, as the West monitors for signs that Russian troops will return to base in a strong sign of de-escalation,” the analysts added. In contrast, failure to do so would almost certainly precipitate a significant increase in Russia’s risk premium. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  14. USD/CAD Traders Looking for Oil Price for Direction USD/CAD steadies in Asia as traders remain jittery over the possibility of increased tensions around the prospect of Russia invading Ukraine. The price of oil, which CAD trades as a proxy, has increased in proportion to the Russian risk premium. As a result, the Loonie is a tough opponent for US Dollar bulls as USD/CAD rallies have dipped below previous daily highs. At the time of this writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2734 in a 10-pip range as geopolitical tensions, which could push oil prices further into triple digits, are watched very closely. . It has been almost confirmed that Russia intends to invade Ukraine, but only through the misinterpretation of the Ukrainian President’s Facebook messages to his country by various media sources. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called on Ukrainians to wave the country’s flag from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on February 16, a date that some Western media have cited as the start date Russian invasion. However, the comments were interpreted as if the President of Ukraine had been officially informed that Wednesday would be the day of the attack. Markets react in kind and sell out, but not so if an actual invasion does take place. There was an air of doubt in the air in the market and moves were limited to what looked more like a false start. Immediately after the first instinctive moves, a Ukrainian official said Zelenskiy was not planning an attack on the 16th, but was instead responding skeptically to foreign media reports. Still, it was scary enough for energy markets that have pushed oil prices to all-time highs in the current bull cycle with WTI in $95.79 billion. USD/CAD then made a trip to print the session low of 1.2719. However, the US dollar is a double-edged sword and benefits from both risk aversion and the prospect of a faster pace of tightening from the Federal Reserve. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  15. EUR/USD towards 1.1305 as threat of Russian aggression grows heavier EUR/USD rallies early in the day as risk appetite fades with major Asian indexes printed in red. The EUSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.2 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei index lost 2.5 percent. At 1.1353, the Euro is now steady on the day against the US Dollar after correcting a significant portion of Friday’s sell-off to a high of 1.1369. A tumultuous start to the week following last week’s alarming US inflation figures combined with the threat of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone for an hour on Saturday about what many see as a last-ditch effort to repel Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the call brought no fundamental change to the deepening crisis, although the United States and Russia agreed to remain engaged in the coming days, according to a senior US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity reported to journalists. The official also told reporters that “Russia may decide to take military action anyway.” Meanwhile, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March with talk of an emergency hike between meetings. That was boosted in part by the timing of the Fed board’s caucus on Monday, even though the event was supposed to be routine. However, not all members of the Fed sing from the same hymn. While Hawk and St. Louis Fed James Bullard debates 50 basis point hike at March meeting, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly down played the need for a half point move in an interview on Sunday . Daly thinks being too “brutal and belligerent” politically can backfire. Fed President James Bullard will be in the spotlight late Monday, with his recent calls for a more aggressive stance by the Fed, meaning a 100 basis point tightening in June. As for the other events of the week, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released and traders will keep an eye on discussions regarding short-term policy plans. Analysts at TD Securities explained that the market will be eyeing balance sheet normalization plans, following the announcement of the “principles” for normalization in January data, the added the analyst. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  16. NZD / USD struggles to strengthen US dollar despite high inflation expectations of Reserve Bank of New Zealand At 0.6658, the NZD / USD fell 0.17% on the day as the greenback continues to dominate the top of the forex leaderboard. On a time basis, the US dollar is ahead while commodity currencies are behind. “CPI inflationary pressures remain strong in the short term, which should be reflected in rent and grocery prices next week,” ANZ Bank analysts said earlier. This should eventually take heat away from the CPI. ” Meanwhile, the market is increasing overnight volatility as it does not move the needle and instead the US consumer price index heats up, leading to bilateral price behavior on New York Day. In , the data was accompanied by a very positive comment from Federal Reserve voting member James Bullard. His rhetoric caused a wave of bets on aggressive rate hikes. Bullard told Bloomberg that he hopes to raise 100 basis points by July and can consider raising rates between meetings. This has led some Fd watchers to talk about rate hikes prior to the March meeting. Interest rate futures rose 50 basis points next month, shifting to a above-average possibility of tightening more than 160 basis points by the end of the year. According to data on Thursday, , the US consumer price index rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, surpassing 6% for the fourth straight month, slightly above economists’ forecast of 7.3%. rice field. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  17. GBP/USD steady in Asia ahead of key US CPI data GBP/USD is steady on the day and patiently waits between 1.3526 and 1.3538 ahead of today’s key event in the US Consumer Price Index. The British Pound initially benefited from a weak Dollar at the start of the week and calmed central bank sentiment at the European Central Bank. However, sterling eased slightly against a stronger currency amid deep and lingering uncertainty over the future course of the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill explained that it makes sense for central banks to step back from providing detailed guidance on the policy outlook, as Reuters reports. Meanwhile, money markets value the BoE’s expected rate hikes at 25 basis points in March and 125 basis points in December 2022. As a result, the pound could rise as the face correction in the greenback more than the euro on the central bank. divergent. The CPI print could provide support to the bearish US Dollar today if the market continues to give further hawkish signs on the pace of Federal Reserve monetary tightening in the data. Whether. A higher number is expected to signal stronger interest rate hikes and should lift the value of the greenback across the board. That metric is expected to be up 0.5 percent month-on-month in January and 7.3 percent on the year, according to economists polled by Reuters. To the Fed speakers, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester spoke on Wednesday and argued that future rate hikes after March will depend on the strength of inflation and the extent of its moderation or existence. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he remains on track for a slightly faster rate hike this year. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  18. XAU/USD bulls advance but may run on empty product Gold (XAU/USD) took advantage of the greenback’s bid as Asian stocks rallied on Wednesday on the back of a strong equity performance on Wall Street. US Treasury yields are holding highs near multi-year highs ahead of this week’s closely watched US inflation data. The DXY, an index that measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, is down about 0.13% at press time while XAU/USD is up 0.14% for yesterday’s business. However, there are solid reasons the greenback is in action and gold’s error could be challenged sooner as the consumer price index is expected to reinforce expectations that the US Federal Reserve interest rates will be raised next month. If there’s a stronger-than-expected number, that could give the deal a larger 50 basis point gain. The bulls face an area of liquidity that could lead to supply entering the market, which will generally cap the price. This brings focus to the downside, leaving $1,811 vulnerable. Gold bulls (XAU/USD) appear to be losing momentum after three consecutive days trending up to 15-day highs, falling to $1,825 during Wednesday’s Asian session . In doing so, the yellow metal represents market anxiety over key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data amid high multi-month Treasury yields and inflation expectations. America’s dimming. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields remained more flat at 1.956% after rising the previous day to their highest levels since late 2019. On the contrary, US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, remain sluggish around a three-month low flashed during late January, recently around 2.42%. That said, global traders remain anxious over the January inflation figures following the Fed`s upbeat performance. However, another player in the bull`s league, namely the European Central Bank (ECB), tried placating the reflation fears of late. Also contributing to the gold`s upside momentum is the looming risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US China trade tussles. On the same line are the latest comments from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that was quoted in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) as saying, “China should `support and guide` the healthy development of capital, and prevent the `barbaric growth of capital.` It`s worth observing that the positive comments from Dr. Anthony Fauci, a leading US health expert, underpin the market`s optimism. However, concerns about the regeneration process are dominating and challenging the public’s optimism in favor of gold prices. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  19. USD/CAD biggest daily cut in a month drops below 1.2700 amid oil price drop USD/CAD is filling a wound around 1.2675 during Tuesday’s mid-Asia session, following its biggest daily drop in four weeks. Cautious market optimism lowers prices of Canada’s main export, WTI crude, to support the latest rally. However, mixed concerns and a sense of caution ahead of the US and Canadian December trade numbers seem to be testing the Loonie pair’s recent corrective downside. That said, WTI Crude Oil prices extend the previous decline from multi-day highs, falling 0.4% on the day around $90.00 by press time. In doing so, the black gold seems to justify the recent pause in US Treasury yields, after falling from two-year highs on Monday. The Sino-US trade wars and recent disappointing China data also pose challenges for oil traders. However, it should be noted that the risk of a war between Russia and Ukraine and concerns about the inability of OPEC+ members to meet production targets are raising hopes among oil buyers’ energy. Elsewhere, trucking protests in Canada and the US-China trade wars also seem to boost USD/CAD amid a slowing Asian session. Against this backdrop, 10-year US Treasury yields rose 1.6 basis points to 1.93%, near their highest levels since late 2020, while equity futures of the US, the nearest slight increase was around 4,485. That said, benchmark US Tbond coupons fell from two-year highs the previous day as Wall Street closed slowly. Additionally, stocks in the Asia-Pacific region are also rallying to reflect a slightly more positive market sentiment. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  20. AUD/USD grinds higher towards 0.7100 as softer China Caixin Services PMI probe bulls AUD/USD pauses the corrective pullback round intraday excessive close to 0.7080 after China flashed downbeat information on their go back all through Monday’s Asian session. Also tough the AUD/USD charges are geopolitical anxiety surrounding Russia and the marketplace’s indecision over the following movements of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). China Caixin Services PMI dropped to 51.four in January, as opposed to 52.nine marketplace consensus and 53.1 prior. Earlier within side the day, Australia’s Retail Sales output for Q4 inspired AUD/USD shoppers because the figures rose to an all-time excessive. “Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday confirmed retail income rose 8.2% while adjusted for inflation within side the area to A$93.2 billion ($65.ninety billion). That became without difficulty the most important growth on report and beat forecasts of 8.1%,” stated Reuters. It’s really well worth noting that the retreat within side the US Treasury yields additionally enables AUD/USD buyers to pare the latest losses after declining for the ultimate consecutive days. It’s really well worth noting that the distinctly upbeat US jobs file for January prompted the United States dollar’s rebound from a three-week low and reduce the Aussie pair’s weekly profits nearly via way of means of a half. That stated, the United States 10-12 months Treasury yield presently retreats from a -12 months excessive whilst the United States inventory futures and Asia-Pacific equities waft lower. IN addition to the information and Treasury yields, indecision over the Fed’s subsequent move, coupled with the hawkish hopes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in spite of the today’s careful conversation upload to the AUD/USD pair’s latest sideways performance. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  21. US dollar is helpless before US Nonfarm Payrolls, 94.60’s and 95.80’s peered toward The dollar record (DXY) fell vigorously on Thursday to a more than fourteen day low as national banks play find the Federal Reserve while, simultaneously, Fed authorities have toned down super hawkish way of talking. The euro, by a wide margin, the biggest part of the file, making up 57.6% of the DXY container, bounced against the dollar after remarks from Europea Central Bank president Christine Lagarde fuelled assumptions for quicker money related strategy tightening. When she was addressed about whether the ECB was “far-fetched” to raise rates this year, Lagarde said it would survey conditions cautiously and be “information subordinate”. This leaves March as a key gathering where the ECB could flag a significantly more hawkish position. Eurozone currency markets are presently estimating a 80% opportunity of a 10 bps climb in June and a practically 100 percent chance of 40 bps of climbs by year-end, from a 90% opportunity of 30 bps climbs before Lagarde’s question and answer session. In the mean time, the Bank of England raised financing costs to 0.5% and almost a large portion of its policymakers needed a more critical increment to contain uncontrolled value pressures. This also has overloaded the DXY. GBP makes up 11.9% of the list. In any case, other than the hawkishness at national banks, the US dollar has unhinged for the current week from the Fed-bid. The blend of less hawkish comments toward the beginning of the week from a tune of Fed authorities, more vulnerable positions information and a slide in ISM administrations from the earlier month are pulling the DXY lower. Hazard hunger has likewise returned creeping into worldwide business sectors. DXY fell under 96 DXY on Thursday as an outcome. The spotlight will currently be on Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll. Payrolls probably plunged in January, yet simply because of brief Omicron aftermath because of the huge number of individuals phoning in debilitated early the month before. This would be relied upon to be reflected in the information. Experts at TD Securities contended that ”few Fed authorities have effectively clarified that they will limit feeble information as brief. Likewise, we see potential gain hazard on normal hourly profit, with a generally solid pattern prone to be added to by transitory Omicron impacts connecting with the arrangement of payrolls and the length of the week’s worth of work. Our 0.6% MoM gauge for hourly income suggests 5.3% YoY, up from 4.7% YoY in December.” The Federal Reserve is relied upon to glance through any close to term shortcoming in the work market, and in this way will climb in March no matter what the upcoming positions information result, as experts at Brown Brothers Harriman clarified. ”In the event that work market shortcoming continues for a very long time past this, the Fed will reexamine its probably rate way.” Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  22. XAU/USD is helpless before national bank occasions and US occupations information At $1,808.20, gold is level on the meeting up to this point and minimal shifted over the direction of the beyond couple of meetings holding over the key $1,800 per ounce level. In any case, there has been an attention on the US dollar and US Treasury yields that have both withdrawn after a mistake in US occupations information. Spot gold (XAU/USD) is strong on the premise that the greenback stretched out its misfortunes to an in excess of a one-week low on Wednesday. In what may be considered as a negative preface to this present Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, a dunk in the US private area work for January because of the increment in COVID-19 contaminations has burdened the US dollar. In late New York early evening time exchanging on Wednesday, US rate prospects evaluated in around 4.7 climbs this year, or 118.6 premise points of strategy fixing, down from the five rate increments seen throughout the most recent two days, Reuters announced. ”Fates likewise showed the likelihood of a 50-premise point climb in March has settled at 12.5%, from as high as 32% toward the end of last week.” In the mean time, examiners at TD Securities clarified, ”the frail positions print that we’re expecting is probably not going to influence the Fed from its definitively hawkish tone. All things being equal, we anticipate that the national bank should look past late shortcoming as being connected with Omicron’s aftermath.” In the interim, on the international front, the US will send additional soldiers to safeguard Eastern Europe from an expected overflow from the massing of Russian soldiers close to Ukraine, US authorities said on Wednesday, Reuters providing details regarding the matter. Gold is a place of refuge resource and could profit from increased strain in the locale. Ultimately, the experts at TD Securities noticed the impact of Chinese investment on the lookout. ”Considering that Chinese interest predominantly upheld gold lately, an occasional break following Lunar New Year could check the finish of strong Chinese interest, recommending costs are powerless against a more profound union on the side of our strategic short gold situation.” To this end, the investigators said, ”CTA pattern adherents are set to continue liquidations except if costs break $1820/oz on the meeting. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  23. AUD/USD withdraws from week after week top close 0.7150 as RBA’s Lowe sounds wary AUD/USD bulls rest around the week by week top, facilitating to 0.7135, on RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s mindful confidence during early Wednesday. All things considered, the danger gauge stays firmer for the third successive day up 0.12% intraday at the most recent. As well as emphasizing the RBA proclamation, Governor Lowe likewise states, “Too soon to finish up expansion is economically inside target range.” However, the bulls stay confident as the policymaker specifies, “Most horrendously awful of troublesome financial impacts from omicron now behind us.” On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officially reported a finish to the Quantitative Easing (QE) and passed on any expectations of additional recuperation in expansion and GDP. However, the Aussie national bank’s dismissal of the prompt rate climb concerns and remarks like, “Expansion has gotten, it is too soon to presume that it is economically inside the objective band,” at first burdened the AUD/USD. Be that as it may, milder US Dollar Index (DXY) and perky execution of values and gold appeared to have supported the AUD/USD pair’s recuperation moves towards reviving the week after week top.Hazard hunger worked on the earlier day regardless of blended remarks from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) authorities and the as of late firmer US information, not to fail to remember uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine issues. While depicting something very similar, the US 10-year Treasury yields snapped a two-day downtrend to recapture 1.80%, as of late lazy around a similar level. However, the Wall Street benchmarks printed gains and help the S&P 500 Futures to stay firm around 4,555 at the most recent. All things considered, the US ISM Services PMI for January rose to 57.6 versus 57.5 expected, denoting the twentieth consecutive extension of the assembling action, which thusly permitted the Fed to keep its hawkish predisposition. Nonetheless, late Fedspeak has been befuddling and tests the US dollar bulls in front of the key US occupations report for January, ready for distributing on Friday. To make reference to Fedspeak, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that there is a “genuine risk” of expansion assumptions floating from the Fed’s 2.0% objective to 4% or higher. Then again, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said that he thinks it is an open inquiry whether the Fed should turn out to be more prohibitive (for example raise rates over the “impartial” 2.0%-2.5% zone). Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
  24. Gold holds in bullish territory, bulls anticipate the RBA to doubtlessly weigh the dollar down At $1,797.38, Gold (XAU/USD) is flat in Asia as markets consolidate earlier than what should come to be a risky set of buying and selling days beforehand for the relaxation of the week. The monetary calendar is jam-filled with occasions that could be predicted to transport the needle with inside the yellow steel. Trading in Asian hours are predicted to stay subdued with numerous markets on excursion for the Lunar New Year, however, the Reserve Bank of Australia should disenchanted the peace and quiet. Expectations are constructing that Governor Philip Lowe will capitulate on his previous conviction that an hobby charge upward thrust this yr became unlikely. This should rock the dollar and sooner or later assist gold costs better, The greenback index (DXY), which measures the dollar towards six rivals, ticked 0.05% better to 96.715, slightly creating a dent in Monday`s 0.59% drop. It became at an nearly 19-month excessive of 97.441 on the quit of closing week, as buyers attempted to 2nd bet the Federal Reserve’s movements for the yr beforehand, in part pricing in a 50 foundation factor charge hike in March. Gold (XAU/USD) customers flirt with the $1,800 threshold, preserving the preceding day`s leap off a seven-week low at some stage in a quiet Asian consultation on Tuesday. In doing so, the valuable steel ignores downbeat US inventory futures, in addition to gradual Treasury yields, after blended updates from the Fed and fantastic information over the Russia-Ukraine tussles appear to have recalled the customers. Having witnessed the Fed`s hawkish halt the closing week, numerous Fed policymakers conveyed their dissatisfaction with the better inflation and preferred charge hikes in March. However, a loss of readability at the tempo of charge carry appears to have weighed at the US Dollar Index (DXY), which in flip preferred gold, the preceding day. Among the important thing Fed audio system had been Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Kansas City Fed President Esther George, now no longer to overlook Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly. Elsewhere, the Washington Post (WaPo) conveyed the information of Russian reaction to americaA inspiration over Ukraine, bringing up a nameless Senior Diplomat. “The Russian authorities have added a written reaction to a U.S. inspiration aimed toward de-escalating the Ukraine crisis.” It`s really well worth noting that UK PM Boris Johnson is likewise scheduled to go to Ukraine on Tuesday while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov may also preserve conferences today. In addition to the blended Fed updates and receding stress at the Russia-Ukraine issue, a mild calendar and the market`s interest off the Fed`s hawkish conversation additionally preferred the Wall Street benchmarks to submit an upbeat begin to the week. The equal challenged America 10-yr Treasury yields at the same time as America Dollar Index (DXY) dropped the maximum in a month, which in flip sponsored gold customers. Looking forward, gold buyers will preserve their eyes at the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January, predicted 57.five as opposed to 58.7 previous, for fast direction. However, predominant interest could be given to the Fedspeak and traits regarding Russia. Read Full News : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
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